The disruptive development of automobiles can be divided into two stages: new energy vehicles (NEVs) and new-form vehicles. Currently, NEVs have become relatively mature, while the foundational conditions for the second stage are not yet in place, meaning new-form vehicles are still far from realization.

The core functions of new-form vehicles are still being developed and evolved. NEVs, on the other hand, are seeking differentiation primarily in non-core features, such as configurations like refrigerators, TVs, and sofas, sporty exteriors, and feature-rich cabin entertainment systems. Additionally, due to the high unit price of automobiles, their long service life, and the large existing market of fuel-powered vehicles, completely replacing fuel-powered cars with NEVs will take a long time. Coupled with the fact that the automobile market is saturated—with most sales coming from replacements and upgrades—price cuts have become the easiest strategy for NEV automakers to boost sales.

However, low prices lacking cost support cannot be sustained in the long run. Greater transformations in the automotive industry will occur in the future stage of new-form vehicles, which requires automakers to invest in R&D and lay out plans for the future to ensure they remain qualified to participate when that stage arrives. Price competition among automakers leads to short-term profit declines or even losses, and in the long term, it undermines R&D investment and future competitiveness.

As of November 2022, China’s automobile market will once again face the severe test of epidemic situation. According to the statistics of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, as of November 30, there were more than 4200 newly confirmed cases every day in China, and more than 30000 asymptomatic infected people. Especially in Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and other key auto consumption areas, this round of the epidemic has had a greater impact. With the prevention and control measures taken by various regions, recent car shows and other activities gathering the popularity of the car market have decreased. The situation of dealers closing their stores is more obvious, and consumers’ enthusiasm for buying cars has weakened.

Affected by this, the number of people who pay attention to cars, SUV, MPV and new energy vehicles has declined to a certain extent. Among them, the MPV market, which mainly meets the needs of business travel, is under the greatest pressure, and the decline even exceeds the impact of the epidemic in March and April this year. The new energy vehicle market, which has attracted much attention this year, has also felt the cold, and the number of people concerned has also declined significantly. The worries and doubts of car buyers about the consumption prospect are increasing, or will lead to increased downward pressure on the future automobile consumption market.

In front of the cold winter, what changes will happen to the list. Release the “November Passenger Car Attention List”, let’s see which models can withstand the test of the market, and which new cars are available to the public. Who is the focus of consumers’ attention, a flash in the pan or a winner?

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1. Smart electric vehicles: vehicles whose energy type is pure electric, plug-in hybrid (including extended program) and which have L2 level or higher intelligent driving level.
2、L2 level: a model with both adaptive cruise control and lane keeping assist system as standard is considered to have L2 level intelligent driving.
3、Car series weighted selling price: Based on the model quotations of dealers across the country, the weighted model lead ratio is used to calculate the weighted selling price of the car series for the month. The monthly fluctuation of the weighted selling price of the final model will be influenced by the end price of the models on sale and the proportion of models that consumers pay attention to.
4. Data sources: popular information from Sina Technology; attention and lead data, model data, and new energy industry index data from AutoZone; vehicle sales from market terminal sales data.

In the September just passed, the terminal sales of new energy vehicles reached 605,000 units, a record high, up 81.1% year-on-year. In terms of brands, BYD defended its new energy vehicle sales crown in September, reaching 200,000 sales, creating a single monthly sales record for independent brands.

In addition to Tesla, BYD and SAIC-GM-Wuling, two models from GAC EAN were also among the top 10 vehicles in the sales ranking. Nezha and Zero Run are growing rapidly and the market pattern of new energy vehicles is evolving rapidly.

Driven by the positive pull of Tesla’s end-of-quarter deliveries picking up, the smart electric vehicle market saw terminal sales return to a high point again, achieving 265,000 units, accounting for 43.8% of the overall new energy market. In the past 12 months, the trend of smart car sales ratio is fluctuating upward, but compared with the peak of 44.1% in June, the ratio declined slightly in September, and it is worth paying attention to whether the market penetration rate of smart electric cars has tended to be saturated.

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From January to August 2022, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales reached 3.97 million units and 3.86 million units respectively, and the proportion of new energy vehicle production and sales to overall vehicle production and sales reached 23.4% and 22.9% respectively. 666,000 new energy vehicles were sold in August 2022, of which 522,000 pure electric vehicles were sold, up 92.9% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid vehicle sales 144,000 units, an increase of 160% year-on-year.

Analysis of market production and sales trends

In August 2022, by model class, the sales structure of the pure electric passenger car market was about 20.6%, 19.1%, and 26.4% for minivans, compacts, and SUVs; the top three model classes of plug-in hybrid sales were about 56.0%, 19.2%, and 13.4% for SUVs, compacts, and mid-size. By vehicle lineup, Model Y, Hongguang MINI EV, Song PLUS New Energy (DM-i), Qin PLUS (DM-i) and other models are leading in sales, with 62,000, 49,000, 36,000 and 24,000 units respectively, accounting for a combined market share of about 25.7%. By brand camp, among the new car-making forces, in August 2022, Nezha, Zero Run, Azera, Xiaopeng and Ideal, respectively, had 16,017, 12,525, 10,677, 9,578 and 4,571 units, each achieving year-on-year growth of 142.2%, 179.1%, 81.6%, 32.8% and -51.5%.

New energy industry boom index analysis

In August 2022, the consistent index of the new energy vehicle industry was 107.4 points, and the market development remained stable. According to the forecast of the prior index, the new energy vehicle market will still maintain growth in October-November 2022.

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In August 2022, the number of car purchase intentions of new energy vehicle users increased by 1.3% month-on-month, a month-on-month increase of 7.9% compared with the previous month. After the market popularity experienced a decline, it began to gradually recover. Let’s take a look at the interpretation of the auto market in August.

1. Overall trend: the popularity of new energy vehicle users is heating up, and the popularity of pure electric vehicles is cooling down

First, let’s take a look at the overall trend of new energy vehicles. In August 2022, the number of car purchase intentions of new energy vehicle users increased by 1.3% month-on-month, a month-on-month increase of 7.9% compared with the previous month. After the market popularity experienced a decline, it began to gradually recover.

In August of this year, the purchase intention of pure electric vehicle users accounted for 69.4%, a slight decrease of 0.9% compared with the previous month, and the proportion of car purchase intention continued to decline; the purchase intention of plug-in hybrid models accounted for 26.8%, Compared with the previous month, it fell slightly by 0.7%, and the proportion of car purchase intentions began to decline after a continuous increase; the proportion of users’ intentions for extended-range models was only 3.7%.

2. Trends by model level: the proportion of sedan users increased, and the proportion of SUV intentions decreased

In August, car purchase intentions of sedan, SUV, and MPV users among new energy vehicles accounted for 55.7%, 42.3%, and 2.0%, respectively. The proportion of car users’ intentions increased by 1.3% compared with the previous month, and the share began to turn from decline to increase. The proportion of SUV user intentions began to decline, down 1.8% from the previous month. The proportion of MPV user intentions increased by 0.5% month-on-month in August, and the proportion of intentions is still low.

3. Trends by region: non-restricted cities are the main market players, and users in developed eastern and southern regions are more active

In August this year, the five provinces with the highest proportion of car purchase intentions included Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Henan. Guangdong ranked first with 13.1% of the intentions. The share of the top 10 provinces with car purchase intentions accumulated to 68.0%, which remained stable compared with the previous month, and the market remained stable. In all provinces, the proportion of user intentions increased in 10 provinces, while the proportion of intentions in 12 provinces declined. Among them, Beijing, Hunan, and Guangxi increased the proportion of user intentions by 0.5%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively compared with the previous month. %, the three provinces with the highest increase in the proportion of intentions; Hainan, Jilin, and Chongqing, the proportion of user intentions decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, respectively, the three provinces with the largest decline.

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In the past year (2021.07.01-2022.06.30), a lot of changes have taken place in the automotive consumer market – the chip shortage almost runs through the whole year of 2021, and intensified in the second half of the year, and the terminal delivery of new cars has become an absolute pain point for manufacturers; The clear goal of “Double Carbon” and the release of the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction have caused more auto manufacturers to announce the countdown to stop the sale of fuel vehicles, and the competition on the new energy track has become more intense; the sudden impact of the epidemic has caused the national new and second-hand car market to fall into a trough; The long-awaited policy of lifting the relocation restrictions on used cars has been officially implemented; the frequent rights protection incidents of various brands have dampened the consumer confidence of users.

As the comprehensive value of a car, the value retention rate is reflected in the overall value of a car. After this year, what changes have taken place compared to the 2021 Chinese car value retention rate rankings?

■ Comprehensive comparison of preservation rate

The overall trend of preservation rate is rising, especially for new energy

As of the date of data statistics (2022.6.30), the annual value preservation rate has increased as a whole. Imported cars will be suspended due to chips and the epidemic in the second half of 2021, and the market supply and demand imbalance is particularly obvious. Therefore, the value preservation rate has risen more than joint ventures and domestic products.

In terms of countries, the average value preservation rate of British cars has risen the most, while Japanese cars have risen the least. The traditional value preservation image of Japanese cars has undergone some changes in the past year. There are also many traditional value preservation rates in the following paragraphs. The first car series has declined. It also shows the decline of Japanese cars in the used car market.

In terms of brands, Porsche has been ranked as the most value-preserving fuel vehicle brand. Lynk & Co has benefited from its newer product line and stable market performance in the past year, and its value-preserving rate has increased the most. Into the top 10 in the overall list. In addition, Japanese Shuangtian has become the only brand whose value preservation rate has encountered Waterloo.

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In July, the domestic automobile production and sales completed 2.455 million and 2.42 million respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% and 3.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 31.5% and 29.7% respectively. Although the production and sales data in July decreased month-on-month, it is still the highest value in the same period of the past year. . The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to play a driving force, completing 617,000 and 593,000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, and a market share of 24.5%. Below, we will analyze the consumer market in July based on the dealer’s monthly lead volume and gain insight into the future trend.

In terms of passenger cars, production and sales in July were 2.21 million and 2.174 million, down 1.3% and 2.1% month-on-month, and up 42.6% and 40% year-on-year. It is worth noting that, driven by the policy of halving the purchase tax, the domestic sales of fuel vehicles in July increased by more than 200,000 units over the same period of the previous year. New energy vehicles have become the main new driving force in the domestic auto market. In July, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, with 617,000 and 593,000 vehicles completed respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year, and a market share of 24.5%.

Compared with the first half of the year, the growth rate of domestic auto production from January to July turned from negative to positive, and the decline in sales continued to narrow. Judging from the data on the volume of leads, consumers’ enthusiasm for car purchases declined after a short-term surge stimulated by the policy. The volume of leads declined slightly in July, down 0.2% month-on-month.

From the end of June to July, a total of 12 policies or notices related to the automobile industry were issued by the state and local governments, including 6 at the national level and 6 at the local level, involving policies to promote automobile consumption, policies to encourage new energy, and policies to promote automobile circulation.

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In the second quarter of 2022, in the sales structure of the pure electric passenger car market, SUVs, mini cars and compact cars accounted for about 34.9%, 27.6%, and 19.0%; the top three models in terms of sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were SUVs , compact cars, and medium and large cars accounted for about 63.3%, 18.8%, and 13.9%. In June 2022, the sales of Model Y, Hongguang MINI EV, Song PLUS DM, Model 3 and other models were leading, with sales of 53,000, 46,000, 27,000 and 26,000 respectively, accounting for about 25.5% of the total market. Among the new car-making forces, in June 2022, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Ideal, Weilai, and Leapmotor were 15,295, 13,157, 13,024, 12,961, and 11,259 respectively, achieving 133%, 163%, and 11,259 respectively. Year-on-year growth of 69%, 14%, and 186%.

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In the pure electric vehicle market, a number of new models were launched this quarter, covering all levels of models, including compact cars and compact SUVs. Compared with the previous quarter, the vertical consumption quality index of all 2022q2 pure electric models has improved. Compared with 2021q2 and 2022q2, the vertical consumption quality index of all models steadily improved and improved significantly.
The longitudinal consumption quality index of 2022q2 micro / small pure electric vehicle is significantly higher than that of 2021q1. Among them, the sensory quality is slightly reduced, the price performance ratio is slightly improved, and the safety and performance design indicators are significantly improved. In this quarter, many micro / small new car models such as Zero run T03, EULA good cat, EULA good cat GT and little ant were launched, while lite and EULA black cat car models were not sold. The safety configuration, charging time, acceleration time, intelligent degree, range and other performance indicators of the new vehicle series on the market are ideal, which are better than those of the withdrawn vehicle series, thus driving the improvement of safety and performance design indicators. The value retention rate of several micro / small pure electric vehicles has slightly increased, but the energy consumption has increased, which makes the price performance ratio slightly improved.

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1. Overall trend: the popularity of new energy vehicle users is heating up, and the popularity of pure electric vehicles has rebounded

First, let’s take a look at the overall trend of new energy vehicles. In June 2022, the number of new energy vehicle users’ purchase intentions increased by 29.2% month-on-month, a month-on-month increase of 20.7% compared with the previous month, and the market popularity continued to rise and the growth rate continued to expand.

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